El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, and this year’s event could be unlike anything we’ve experienced in decades. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong, “Super” El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27—and a 69% chance that it could exceed the strength of every El Niño event in NOAA’s historical record dating back to 1950. While a powerful El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter in San Diego, an event of this magnitude increases the likelihood of weather patterns typically associated with El Niño.

For Southern California property owners, that makes now an important time to think beyond storm preparation and consider how well your home and your finances are protected. Because some forms of protection take time to put in place, waiting until a major storm is already in the forecast may be too late.

What Does a Strong El Niño Mean for San Diego?

El Niño develops when unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific interact with the atmosphere and influence weather patterns around the world.

NOAA expects the current El Niño to continue strengthening through the end of 2026. Its experimental SPEAR forecasting system is showing particularly notable results: all 30 simulations produced an El Niño capable of competing with the strongest events in the historical record, with the event expected to peak sometime between October 2026 and January 2027.

That doesn’t mean forecasters can tell us today how many storms San Diego will receive or how much rain will fall in any particular neighborhood.

In fact, NOAA specifically cautions that even with an El Niño of this magnitude, typical impacts are more likely, but not guaranteed.

That’s an important distinction.

The goal isn’t to assume San Diego is headed for catastrophic flooding. It’s to recognize that we are entering the rainy season with an unusually strong climate signal and use the advance warning to prepare.

San Diego Has Already Seen How Quickly Heavy Rain Can Become a Disaster

Southern California’s generally dry climate can make flooding feel like someone else’s problem. But San Diego doesn’t have to look very far into the past for an example of how quickly that can change.

On January 22, 2024, a powerful storm dropped 2.73 inches of rain on San Diego in a single day, making it the fourth-heaviest rainfall day in the city’s recorded history. Some areas received as much as 2.5 inches in only one hour.

The results were devastating.

Neighborhoods including Southcrest, Mountain View, Encanto and Shelltown experienced extensive flooding. According to the National Weather Service, hundreds of homes were damaged, more than 200 water rescues were performed, and thousands of residents and business owners were affected. Flooding also damaged roads, bridges, culverts, schools and other infrastructure throughout the region.

The City’s stormwater system was put under tremendous pressure. Six of San Diego’s 15 stormwater pump stations were overwhelmed during the January 22 storm, while the City’s Stormwater Department received more than 500 calls related to flooding and other problems.

For property owners, the lesson isn’t that another January 2024 storm is inevitable.

It’s that in San Diego, significant property damage doesn’t require weeks of rain. Under the right conditions, a tremendous amount of water can fall in a very short amount of time.

Flood Risk Isn’t Limited to Properties Near the Water

Many property owners think of flood risk in geographical terms:

I don’t live by the beach.

I’m not next to a river.

My property isn’t in a high-risk flood zone.

Those factors absolutely matter, but they don’t eliminate flood risk.

Heavy rainfall, overwhelmed drainage systems, runoff, low-lying streets and the elevation of an individual property can all influence whether water reaches a property.

National Flood Insurance Program data reinforces that point. From 2014 through 2024, almost one-third of NFIP flood insurance claims came from properties outside designated high-risk flood areas.

The January 2024 San Diego storm demonstrated how localized that risk can be. One neighborhood, or even one street, can experience dramatically different conditions from another.

That’s why knowing your FEMA flood zone is useful, but it shouldn’t necessarily be the end of the conversation about your property’s exposure.

Preparing Your Property Is Only Half of the Equation

When a significant storm approaches, most of us think first about protecting the physical property.

Clear leaves and debris from drains and gutters. Check the roof. Move vulnerable belongings, equipment, inventory or other property away from areas where water could enter. Know where water tends to collect around the property. Have sandbags available if the property has experienced drainage problems before.

Those steps matter.

But property owners should also ask a different question:

If water does damage my property, how would I pay for it?

That’s where insurance preparation becomes just as important as physical preparation.

Most standard homeowners and commercial property insurance policies do not cover damage caused by flooding. FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program notes that flood damage is generally not covered by standard homeowners, renters or commercial property insurance and typically requires separate flood coverage.

That doesn’t automatically mean every San Diego property owner needs a flood insurance policy.

It does mean property owners should know what their existing insurance covers, where the gaps are and how much financial risk they would be comfortable assuming themselves.

Don’t Wait Until There’s a Storm in the Forecast

When meteorologists begin tracking a major storm headed toward San Diego, property owners naturally start thinking about sandbags, clearing drains, checking roofs and protecting outdoor property.

But there is one type of preparation that may already be too late by then: reviewing your insurance.

A new policy through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program generally has a 30-day waiting period before coverage becomes effective, although certain exceptions apply.

That’s why waiting until a storm appears in the seven-day forecast can create a significant problem.

Insurance planning should happen before the storm is on the radar.

And financial preparation goes beyond purchasing another policy. It’s understanding:

• What types of water damage your current homeowners or commercial property policy covers.
• What it specifically excludes.
• Whether your property has characteristics that increase its flood exposure.
• What your deductible and potential out-of-pocket costs would be.
• Whether flood insurance or another form of additional protection makes sense for your property.
• Whether you have adequate coverage for the belongings, equipment or inventory inside your property as well as the structure itself.

Knowing those answers now gives you choices. Discovering a coverage gap after several inches of water have entered your property does not.

Think Beyond the Forecast: Know Your Financial Exposure

The 2026–27 El Niño forecast certainly deserves attention. NOAA is currently giving this event a meaningful chance of becoming stronger than any El Niño in its historical record dating back to 1950.

But whether San Diego ultimately experiences an extraordinarily wet winter or a relatively uneventful one, preparing ahead isn’t wasted effort.

The real question isn’t simply, “Will it flood this winter?”

It’s: “If something does happen to my property, am I financially prepared for it?”

Take a little time before the rainy season to review your property insurance coverage, understand your property’s flood exposure and identify any gaps that could leave you paying unexpectedly out of pocket.

At Koda Insurance Services, our team can help you review your existing coverage, understand where flood protection fits in and determine what level of protection makes sense for your property and your budget.

Don’t wait for a storm warning to find out where you stand.

Talk with Koda Insurance Services today and make sure your property and your finances are ready for whatever this winter brings.